RISK LAB / MODEL 002

Monte Carlo simulator.

The average return tells only part of the story. Simulate thousands of different win/loss sequences to explore possible ending balances, drawdowns and the risk of hitting a capital floor.

Reproducible random seedOutcome distributionsNo exchange APIRuns in your browser

New to probability simulations? Read the illustrated guide →. Compare its sampled threshold chance to our exact Risk of Ruin model →.

Add this tool to your phone or tablet home screen

In Safari on iOS, use Share → Add to Home Screen and select Open as Web App. In Chrome on Android, use Install app or Add to Home screen. The shortcut opens directly to this simulator.

For a lasting shortcut, open this page on markethistorylab.com before adding it to your home screen. Internet is required to load the site.

Set the assumptions

Six fields define your hypothetical trade sequence. No prices, fees or portfolio records are fetched from elsewhere.

Starting capital (USD)

Assumed win rate (%)

Reward / risk (R)

Risk per trade (%)

Number of trades

Capital-loss floor (% of start)

Simulation settings (optional)2,000 paths · seed 2026

Simulated paths

Random seed

Each path has a full win or loss on every trade. A winning trade multiplies current equity by (1 + risk fraction × R); a loss multiplies it by (1 − risk fraction). Random sampling only varies the order and number of outcomes.

Simulated outcomes, not historical BTC or other market prices. Independent trades, fixed win rate, identical payoffs and no costs are strong simplifying assumptions; the real world may behave very differently.

MONTE CARLO / FIXED FRACTION READY FOR INPUT

Median ending capital—Middle simulated outcome: 50% of sampled final balances are at or below this value.

Lower outcome (P10)—10th percentile, not a worst-case limit.

Upper outcome (P90)—90th percentile, not a guarantee.

Hit capital floor (sampled)—At any point, not only at the end.

Hit capital floor (exact)—Benchmark under the same idealised assumptions.

Median maximum drawdown—From each path's running peak.

90th percentile max drawdown—Deeper drawdowns in the worse 10% of paths.

Finish below start—Different from ever touching the loss floor.

Simulated paths / seed—

Range of capital outcomes

The shaded P10–P90 region and middle line summarize simulated paths at each trade. They are not individual price paths. Vertical scale is logarithmic.

P10–P90 band Median Starting capital

View percentile checkpoints in a table

Trade	P10	Median	P90
Run the simulator to view checkpoint values.

Distribution of final capital

Counts of sampled paths by ending balance, using logarithmic capital buckets. A high-end tail can raise the average above the median.

Enter assumptions, then run the simulation.

Only your explicit share/export action sends data elsewhere. Calculation itself happens locally.

Reproducible pseudo-random simulation, not market history, investment advice, actual performance or liquidation risk. Wilson interval describes sampling error under the assumed model, not confidence in the chosen win rate or future strategy returns.

THE IMPORTANT DISTINCTION

Distribution is not destiny.

Averages conceal the range of possible sequences. Two traders using identical entry rules may see very different equity curves simply because winning and losing trades arrive in a different order.

Monte Carlo samples many such paths. It can show what follows from your assumed win rate, R-multiple and sizing rule—but it cannot tell you whether those assumptions hold in live trading. The exact first-passage result is also displayed as a useful check on sampling noise.

Win: next equity = current equity × (1 + risk fraction × R)
Loss: next equity = current equity × (1 − risk fraction)

Read the plain-language explanation of bands, drawdowns and pitfalls →.